Bitcoin slid to a 12-week low near $68,500 on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, as traders priced an 88% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate increase and spot Bitcoin ETF investors pulled money for a sixth consecutive session. The move erased most of the summer rally and left the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 20 out of 100, the Extreme Fear zone, according to Alternative.me.
Catalyst Breakdown: Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $70,000?
Two forces converged. The first was inflation data. October producer prices rose 0.3% month over month, below forecast, but climbed 6.5% year over year, the largest annual jump since 2022, per Decrypt. Core CPI rose exactly 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus, the same threshold Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged before the print. Waller said he supported raising rates by at least 25 basis points at the Dec. 8-9 meeting and that core CPI at 0.3% or higher could justify a stronger policy move.
The second was the dollar. The Dollar Index climbed above 103, its highest since April 2025, per CoinDesk. CME FedWatch showed an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point hike and 12% for 50 basis points; Decrypt's futures-based read put the split at 91.9% and 8.1%, with the current target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Reuters, "Are we on a path back to 2%? My feeling right now is we are not and we've got to deal with that."
Price action followed mechanically. CoinDesk reported BTC traded as low as $67,770, a level unseen since Aug. 19, while ether touched $1,900, its lowest since Aug. 18. Decrypt put the 24-hour decline at about 4.5% and the weekly loss at 9.5%. Investing.com recorded BTC at $69,019.3 by 09:56 ET, down 3.6%, in a sixth straight losing week.
Institutional & Protocol Exposure
Leverage bore the brunt of the move. CoinDesk tallied $1.64 billion of liquidations over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 88.7% of the damage, including $916 million in bitcoin and $289 million in ether. That is a positioning flush rather than a spot-led repricing, and it explains why the drawdown felt sharper than the headline percentage suggests.
ETF flows told a slower story. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged six consecutive sessions of net outflows between Nov. 5 and Nov. 12, roughly $1.49 billion per Decrypt and about $1.44 billion per Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk, including a $47.7 million withdrawal on Thursday. Cumulative net inflows still sit near $55.5 billion, so the redemption is a marginal trim against a large installed base rather than a structural exit. Corporate treasury sentiment also took a hit after Strategy's removal from MSCI indexes, a factor Investing.com cited alongside rate-hike bets. Our coverage of the MSCI removal of Strategy and Metaplanet details the index mechanics behind that overhang.
Risks, Objections & Counterarguments
The bull case is that this is a rates shock absorbed by a market that already survived a similar test. Bitcoin broke below $72,000 with ether under $2,000 earlier in the sequence, and each leg has been met with fund-level accumulation rather than capitulation, as documented in our report on why Bitcoin broke below $72K and ether fell under $2,000.
The bear case is stickier. PPI at 6.5% year over year and core CPI at 0.3% month over month argue against a quick pivot, and Goolsbee's comment suggests the inflation impulse has broadened beyond energy and tariffs. If the Fed delivers 25 basis points on Dec. 9 and signals more to come, real yields keep climbing and non-yielding assets stay under pressure. A 50-basis-point outcome, priced at 8.1% to 12% depending on the source, is the genuine tail risk for leveraged positioning.
Data quality is a caveat worth flagging. Outflow totals differ by roughly $50 million between Decrypt and Farside, and weekly loss figures range from nearly 8% to 9.5% depending on snapshot time. Neither discrepancy changes the direction of travel, but readers should treat single-source precision with care.
Market Scenarios to Watch
Three paths matter into the Dec. 8-9 meeting, and each maps to a distinct flow regime.
Key Benchmark Comparison (Scenario | Trigger | BTC price zone | ETF flow implication)
- Dovish hold: Trigger: Core CPI at 0.2% or lower | BTC price zone: Reclaim of $70,000 | ETF flow implication: Outflows reverse within days
- 25bp hike, neutral guidance: Trigger: Base case, 88% priced | BTC price zone: $66,000 to $70,000 | ETF flow implication: Stabilizes against $55.5B cumulative base
- 50bp hike: Trigger: 8.1% to 12% priced | BTC price zone: Retest of August lows | ETF flow implication: Accelerated redemptions, deeper long flush
What Would Change the Bearish Setup?
Two signals. First, ETF flows turning positive for three or more consecutive sessions, which would mark the first sustained bid since Nov. 5. Second, a core CPI print at or below 0.2%, which would undercut the Waller threshold and pull the December hike probability down from 88%. Until one of those appears, the path of least resistance runs through the dollar, and the dollar is trading at its strongest level since April 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin hit a 12-week low on Nov. 13, 2026?
Bitcoin fell to roughly $68,500, its lowest in 12 weeks, as traders priced an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, the Dollar Index rose above 103, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth straight session of net outflows.
How much was liquidated in the selloff?
CoinDesk reported $1.64 billion of crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 88.7% of the total, including $916 million in bitcoin and $289 million in ether.
How much have spot Bitcoin ETFs lost in outflows?
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw six consecutive sessions of net outflows between Nov. 5 and Nov. 12, totaling roughly $1.49 billion per Decrypt and about $1.44 billion per Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk. Cumulative net inflows remain near $55.5 billion.
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Disclosure: This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.