Bitcoin's roughly 24% slide from $81,188 on Nov. 4 to $61,956 on Nov. 14 gave traders a villain, and many on X picked Binance. The spot-flow data points the other way. Coinbase selling pressure reached a cumulative volume delta (CVD) of -$1.08 billion between Oct. 31 and Nov. 15, according to CoinGlass, while Binance, OKX and Bybit all recorded positive CVD over the same window. The venue absorbing the heaviest market sell orders was the U.S. exchange that custodies most American spot Bitcoin ETFs, not the one that lost $6.4 billion to a hack on Oct. 29.
Catalyst Breakdown
Two events set the narrative. On Oct. 29, Binance disclosed a $6.4 billion hack. Two weeks later the exchange published a Proof of Reserves report showing client balances were fully backed, but the gap between the breach and the reassurance was wide enough for social traders to fill with a theory: Binance selling crypto to cover its losses. Changpeng Zhao then shared a comparison of Bitcoin charts ahead of the SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs, calling it "an interesting analysis", and replies to that post blamed Binance for the drawdown.
Liquidation data made the story feel confirmed. On Nov. 13, crypto exchanges liquidated 187,389 traders for a total of $1.65 billion in 24 hours, with 88% of that amount coming from long positions, per CoinGlass. Binance is the largest exchange by trading volume and hosts a large share of futures liquidations, so its prints dominate the tape during a flush. Forced selling is visible there. Directional spot selling is a different measurement, and it shows up somewhere else.
Institutional & Protocol Exposure: Where Did Coinbase Selling Pressure Come From?
CVD measures the difference between the volume of market buy orders and market sell orders. Negative CVD means sellers crossed the spread more aggressively. Between Oct. 31 and Nov. 15, Coinbase printed -$1.08 billion. OKX printed +$240.3 million, Bybit +$65.17 million and Binance +$51.88 million. On spot markets, buyers were the more aggressive side on all three offshore venues.
David Lawant, Director of Research at Anchorage Digital, reached the same conclusion with a different cut of the data: between Nov. 9 and Nov. 14, sell orders exceeded buy orders by roughly 8,900 BTC on Coinbase's major spot Bitcoin pairs, against about 3,100 BTC on Binance, 700 BTC on Bybit and a buying surplus of about 1,400 BTC on OKX. Coinbase's CVD fell most sharply between Nov. 10 and Nov. 14, the window in which Bitcoin broke below $70,000.
Why Coinbase? Structure. The exchange is custodian for most U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, and many U.S. institutional investors trade on the platform through Coinbase Prime. When an allocator rebalances, the sell ticket prints on Coinbase.
Key Benchmark Comparison (Venue | Spot CVD, Oct. 31 to Nov. 15 | Sell-side excess, Nov. 9 to Nov. 14)
- Coinbase: Spot CVD, Oct. 31 to Nov. 15: -$1.08 billion | Sell-side excess, Nov. 9 to Nov. 14: About 8,900 BTC
- Binance: Spot CVD, Oct. 31 to Nov. 15: +$51.88 million | Sell-side excess, Nov. 9 to Nov. 14: About 3,100 BTC
- Bybit: Spot CVD, Oct. 31 to Nov. 15: +$65.17 million | Sell-side excess, Nov. 9 to Nov. 14: About 700 BTC
- OKX: Spot CVD, Oct. 31 to Nov. 15: +$240.3 million | Sell-side excess, Nov. 9 to Nov. 14: About 1,400 BTC buying surplus
The timing link is Anthropic, scheduled to start trading on Nasdaq on Nov. 19. Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee called the recent drawdown a temporary rotation of money into mega-IPOs, and Bitcoin lost around 18% in the 50 days before the listing. The full setup is covered in our Anthropic IPO analysis, and the weekend flush that followed is tracked in our report on Bitcoin dropping below $64,000.
Risks, Objections & Counterarguments
Three objections matter. First, CVD is a flow measure, not a holdings measure: a negative print shows who was aggressive, not who caused the price. Second, the episode rests on a narrow reporting base. The CoinGlass figures were surfaced in a single U.Today report, and no second outlet independently corroborated the interpretation at the time of writing. Third, Binance's positive spot CVD does not clear the venue of influence. Its derivatives book, funding rates and liquidation engine can move price without a single spot sell order.
Sentiment is doing work that data cannot. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 10/100 on Nov. 15, deep in Extreme Fear. In that regime, narratives attach to the loudest print on the tape, and Binance's liquidation prints are the loudest. Traders who treat the Binance story as settled are reading derivatives noise as spot intent. A separate read from CryptoCompass put Bitcoin below $62,000, its lowest since August, before a recovery to $64,830.
Market Scenarios to Watch
Bitcoin recovered to around $65,400 on Sunday and traded at $65,333, down 13.76% over seven days, per TLT. Three paths matter into the Anthropic listing.
Key Benchmark Comparison (Scenario | Trigger to watch | What confirms it)
- Rotation thesis holds: Trigger to watch: Coinbase spot CVD turns positive before Nov. 19 | What confirms it: Spot bid returns once IPO capital is deployed
- Selling is structural: Trigger to watch: Coinbase CVD stays negative after the listing | What confirms it: Drawdown is allocation-driven, not event-driven
- Binance accusation gains a data leg: Trigger to watch: Binance spot CVD flips negative | What confirms it: Venue-level selling appears on spot, not just futures
What Should Traders Watch Next?
Watch the venue, not the hashtag. Coinbase spot CVD is the cleanest available proxy for U.S. institutional intent, and it flipped the sign of the story in two weeks. If that line turns positive after Nov. 19, the rotation argument survives. If it stays negative while Binance stays positive, the market has a structural seller in the ETF custody stack, and blaming an offshore derivatives venue will keep missing the flow.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Binance cause the Bitcoin drop in November 2026?
The spot data does not support that claim. CoinGlass showed Binance spot CVD at +$51.88 million between Oct. 31 and Nov. 15, meaning buyers were the more aggressive side there. Coinbase spot CVD over the same period was -$1.08 billion, indicating sellers dominated that venue.
What is cumulative volume delta (CVD) and why does it matter?
CVD is the difference between the volume of market buy orders and market sell orders. A negative reading means sellers were more active crossing the spread. It measures aggression in flows, not total holdings, so it identifies which venue absorbed selling rather than proving what moved the price.
How much did Bitcoin fall before the Anthropic IPO?
Bitcoin went from $81,188 on Nov. 4 to $61,956 on Nov. 14, a decline of around 24%, per CoinGlass, before recovering to roughly $65,400 on Sunday. Fundstrat's Tom Lee noted Bitcoin lost around 18% in the 50 days before the Anthropic listing, which was set for Nov. 19 on Nasdaq.
Related Research
Primary Sources
- Crypto Traders Blame Binance for Bitcoin Drop, But Data Points to Coinbase (U.Today)
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index — Alternative.me (Alternative.me)
- cryptocompass.com (Verified Web Source)
Disclosure: This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.